Blackjack Probability

Counting Cards

Whether you are playing for the first time or you've been playing for years, you have probably heard about counting cards from somewhere. This strategy is used by several professional poker players, and allows them to level the playing field. By understanding your odds, you are able to make better decisions when you play the game.

Here are the basic statistics for when you will bust with a certain number of points:

  • points = 100%
  • points = 92%
  • points = 85%
  • points = 77%
  • points = 69%
  • points = 62%
  • points = 58%
  • points = 56%
  • points = 39%
  • points = 31%
  • points or less = 0%

As you can see, your odd drastically change depending on the number of points you have. Now, the dealer always has the upper hand in Blackjack. This is because the casino wins whether you lose or get a draw. This puts you at a disadvantage, but doesn't make things impossible.

What to Know

Be sure you know the rules for the casino you are going to. Some dealers must draw at 17, while others must hold. Being aware of this knowledge will play a crucial part in how you play your game as well. By looking at the chart above, you will have a better idea of what you chances really are when you play Blackjack.

When playing against the dealer, it is safest to assume that he has a 10 point card. The reason for this is because it gives you room to adjust and change your strategy. Also, these cards have a higher probability of appearing because there are 4 of them for every suit, unlike the other cards.

By doing simple math equations in your head, you'll have a basic idea of what is going on when you play. While it may not completely even the odds, keeping a cool head can keep your head above the water. Be sure to memorize the chart so that you know when to take a hit and when to hold off. While Blackjack does rely on luck, you can't just play with luck alone.

By leaning how to count cards and calculate your odds, you'll be a much better player and won't end up losing money that you shouldn't have. Remember that counting cards isn't illegal and it isn't cheating. It is a formulated strategy that helps you get the upper hand. It won't make you win every time, but it will help you make better choices when you play. With the chart in your head and strategy in your game, you're bound to improve in the game of Blackjack.


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